ClimCoSt provide comprehensive and reliable computer simulations of climate changes in regional/local
scales and evaluation of their impacts on ecosystems and quality of life.
The service produce reliable, comprehensive and detailed evaluations of possible regional/local climate
changes and their consequences for different global change scenarios. Metrics and tools for evaluating
some of the climate change impacts on environment and quality of will be available. Making use of vast
computing resources, the service will enable scientist to perform in-depth assessment of the climate
change impacts that cannot be achieved with the desired accuracy using local computing resources. Users
are climate scientists and national and municipal policymakers.
The forthcoming climate changes are the biggest challenge facing mankind today. They will exert
influence on the ecosystems, on all branches of the international economy, and on the quality of life.
The climate changes and their consequences have a great number of regional aspects, which global models
cannot predict. That is why an operation plan for adaptation to climate changes has to be based on
well-grounded scientific assessments, taking in consideration regional features of the climate changes
and their consequences. The present work aims to give an overview of the HPC facilities’ implementation
for studying of present and future regional climates of the Balkan region. Simulations were performed
with the regional climate model RegCM on the supercomputer Avitohol of IICT – BAS. The global climate
simulations, taken from HadGEM2 database were used as source for the initial and lateral boundary
conditions. The simulations were performed for the following time slots: 1.) 1975 – 2005 – reference
period, 2.) 2020 – 2050 – near future and 3.) 2070 – 2099 – far future. The simulations for the future
climate were carried out for 3 CMIP5 emission scenarios: RCP2.6 (optimistic scenario), RCP4.5 (realistic
scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario). The simulation results for the reference period were
compared with the independent, observation-based data set E-OBS. These preliminary simulation results
reveal that the projected climate changes are strongest in the far future and RCP8.5.
